📡 Report on holding a special session for Future Studies of Rain Floods in Iran
🕙 April 29, 2019.
📶 Hosted by IRIB
۱️⃣ First speaker of this session Dr. Ahad Rezayan, Post Ph.D. Researcher in futures studies at the University of Tehran, on Flood, Hidden Consequences and Post-Crisis Management, Stated that:
Investigating the probability of occurrence of floods in Iran by 2050 indicates that areas of Zagros and Alborz are susceptible to flood phenomena due to the combination of natural and human factors. Historical data show the mortality and financial losses of flood in Iran and the world, which should be considered like earthquakes. The flood has immediate consequences, social and political hidden implications that can be prevented by proper management of becoming a crisis.
۲️⃣ The second speaker, Dr Ahmad, Futurist, said that for the futures studies of the floods of March 2019 in Iran, analyzes should be made based on the future time formation model and the use of diamond methods of futures studies.
➡️ Pointing to the recent UN meeting in 2018 for the Mediterranean development at the 2050 horizon, he emphasized that all scientific topics should be presented based on strong evidence and documentation so that it can be modeled according to experts and with creativity, and present the future scenarios for creating engagement to stakeholders so that our mentality goes beyond existing paradigms.
↘️ CEO of DrFuturist.org with 120 years of data from Iran’s rainfall and temperature data, stated that the rain volume of March 2019 was the same as in March 1996, and even less than precipitation for some years in the past 120 years. According to field observations, our country still faces concerns about water resources. And even in Khuzestan, some schools were shut down for dust in April, because some of the inner centers of dust were still dry despite the volume of floods.
▶️ Ahmad Mahdeyan, PhD in Futures Studies, provided evidence that inappropriate use of nature was the main cause of recent flood damage, which confirms the 6 times the demand for Iranian resources in the past 60 years.
🔄 Referring to the fact that 80 percent of the Iranian economy is directly in the hands of the government and the rest is at the hands of the municipalities and the private sector, according to experts, it is concluded that the main culprits of the recent floods are the state’s triple powers. So people have to pay attention to the long-term visions for decisions in elections.
⏩ Dr. Ahmad further compared flood damage and bank debtors and reported embezzlements saying the government could easily offset all costs with a slight increase in efficiency.
↪️ Based on the matrix resulting from the intersection of internal and external trends in the situation of continued internal weaknesses and external pressure, we will continue to see inflation at least 25%, which can be exacerbated by the continued sale of oil. In addition, due to the general trend of the three powers in the lack of long-term vision, cash payments to people and repeat institutionalized corruption, the likelihood of repeating similar incidents and marginalization in metropolitan areas will increase, unless the people and the government consider the long-term vision and transparency.
✅ For example, last year, Dr. Ahmad and Dr. Rezaan had raised the probability of flooding due to heavy rainfall along with the drought, which, despite the media’s reflection, did not attract the attention of the people and politicians, because the ruling paradigm was the continuation of the past process, while the future may not be the same as the past.