Report of holding a scientific meeting on the futures studies about environment of Iran, May 8, 2018 at the Institute of Social Studies and Research of Tehran University.
In the beginning, Dr. Mahdi Faturehchi outlined the group’s future plans, and then the speakers presented the content and finally the question and answer addressed for the synergy of thoughts.
۱- Ahmad Mahdeyan, PhD in Management of Future Studies, defined foresight as a new scientific approach towards the future rather than to stay in the past. And showed that this field covers a range of different sciences in order to make a sustainable and sustainable future. The most important role of future studies by using different methods is to turn the past dreams into the realities of the future. Dr. Ahmad, futurist, said that futurists, by highlighting the possibilities and imagining a long-term perspective, present alternative scenarios in order to tell us, what to do now.
He discovered the global trends affecting climate change from two natural and human sources in four categories: Increasing carbon dioxide emissions, Changes in the Earth’s rotation away from the angle and speed, the acceleration of technology and the demand for resources due to population growth. And trough the challenges facing climate change, especially fresh water and clean air, outlined the effects of rising ground temperatures up to 4°C, one meter rising of sea levels and extreme weather changes with exacerbations of rainfall and drought, as well as carbon-contamination in the environment and the emergence of emerging diseases and the need to use strategies such as creating green cities, using seawater and development of clean energy.
Based on the algorithm of the conceptual model of the origin of the idea of futures scenarios, Dr. Ahmad presented two proposals for a sustainable environment:
- Water supply through the creation of Sky Rivers between the oceans and arid areas.
- The use of carbon dioxide by the creation of organisms derived from new combinations of matter and energy.
۲- The second speaker, Ahad Rezayan, Ph.D. graduate of the University of Tehran in Future Studies, examined the signs and consequences of climate change in Iran at the age of 30 years. This futurist believes that drying of lakes and land subsidence due to excessive withdrawals of water resources is one of the objective evidence of the problem. Then on Iran map he showed various trends of rain reduction and temperature increase in different parts of the country which will be accompanied by extreme events such as floods as well as hot and cold days.
Dr. Rezayan, using future wheel, has described the implications of climate change on human, economic, and political relations of the community, including migration, poverty and the growing discontent due to water scarcity, air pollution and the crisis of micro-organisms by providing some priority strategies such as renewable energy development, modifying the pattern of consumption and strengthen the private sector.
۳- Mohammad Ali Ahmadi, Ph.D. student of Future Studies, at the National Science Policy Research Center, also showed a film about changes in the role of different countries in carbon production over the past few hundred years. Britain, the leading source of air pollution in the 18th century, has given its place to countries such as the United States, China and India. He cited energy consumption and, consequently, carbon production as a sign of economic growth with the goal of increasing prosperity and, on the other hand, a factor in reducing the quality of life. According to the Kuznets curve, with the growth of the economy, environmental degradation is initially increased and, once it reaches its peak, further growth will lead to environmental protection, and thus developed countries will seek to transfer their polluting industries to low per capita countries.
Ahmadi, finally described the controversy between developed and developing countries in joining the 2015 Paris Treaty for voluntary action to reduce greenhouse gases and prevent further global warming.
۴- The final speaker of the meeting, engineer Jalil Salimi, Ph.D. student of futures studies at the University of Amir Kabir, has shown that the water crisis around the world is being actively pursued by mapping the available water to humans. In the following, comparing the resources and expenditures of Lake Urmia watershed with similar countries, it has been shown that with proper management, those states have managed to achieve much more economic output despite the shortage of water resources for less water consumption.
Salimi, evaluated the most important cause of water crisis in addressing the issue of the lack of rainfall related to how the water is governed by the government.
Report of holding a scientific meeting on the futures studies about environment of Iran at the Institute of Social Studies and Research of Tehran University.